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Coiled Spring

Coiled Spring

The market is in a short-term advance within a longer-term decline. The question is. Has the market bottomed and is this the beginning of a longer-term move higher or is the advance a bear trap? The market is at an inflection point and a few of the indicators I will...

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Bears Firmly In Control

Bears Firmly In Control

S&P 500 Index   Below is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. Here are the critical aspects of the chart: The index is in a downtrend defined by a series of lower-highs and lower-lows. Price advances keep failing at resistance. Price is below its 50 and...

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Capitulation Common at Market Bottoms

Capitulation Common at Market Bottoms

  The S&P 500 Index is down over 22% (peak-to-trough). Unfortunately, the largest declines in equities have historically occurred as a result of recessions, and odds are high that we are going to be entering one soon. The bear markets of 2020 and 2008 both...

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Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Easy money policies by the Fed and excessive fiscal spending have placed the economy and thus markets in a position of weakness. Inflation is raging and the Fed is trying to reign it in as the economy is showing signs of slowing. The net result is that markets are...

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How Much Risk Are You Taking?

How Much Risk Are You Taking?

  I recently met with a friend who asked me to analyze his retirement account. His account is allocated similarly to most retirees which is 60% invested in stocks and 40% in bonds. He uses a passive buy-and-hold strategy. I took his allocation and backtested it...

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Hanging By A Thread

Hanging By A Thread

    The S&P 500 Index is down 13.3% year-to-date and is below both its 50 and 200-day moving averages. On Friday the index lost 3.6% falling marginally below the March low. This support level is widely being watched and is a line in the sand for many...

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Bonds – No Longer Providing Protection

Bonds – No Longer Providing Protection

Bond yields are rising at a historic pace putting the 40-year bull market in bonds into question. What should conservative investors be doing given their bonds are no longer providing them the protection they are used to.

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Risk-On or Risk-Off

Risk-On or Risk-Off

In today’s update, I analyze the stock market by determining if we are in a bullish, risk-on environment or a bearish, risk-off environment.

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